The earth will not be able to keep its temperature below 2°C   and it will probably increase by a further 4,8°C by the end of this century if greenhouse emissions are not tackled aggressively according to the IPCC report published this friday.

earth with a three arrow recycle symbol

 The earth is getting irreversibly hotter and more evidence is mounting confirming that human activities are the main determining cause; increasing data and information are confirming what scientists have been predicting for many years. 2012  is a record year for what concerns ice loss in the Artic increase in sea level and CO2 emission in the atmosphere.

According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th report   (AR5)  sea level will probably increase between 26 and 82 cm by the end of the century compared to 18 and 59 centimeters by an earlier prediction.

 The conclusions drawn from the analysis of almost 10.000 scientific publication during the past 6 years  predict that the increase in sea level has accelerated and that the Artic is melting at twice the rate as global temperature will be more than likely exceed 2° C in 2100. The IPPC report   released this Friday  include observation indicating that the rate of global warming from 1998 to 2012 has slowed down. 

 According to the analysis the world temperature during the past 30 years have been hotter than ever and that the  combined green house emission that have been released during the past decades has only determined an inconclusive Kyoto Agreement; given the passivity of governments in tackling this issue. The consequence of this inaction means that the world’s temperatures will increase by  2°C degrees (what is considered acceptable to avoid  serious consequences on human activities). According to a more optimist scenario the increase in temperature will be of just 10 degree by 2081-2100.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is getting closer to a threshold level beyond which the global climate damage will be irreversible.

If we don’t make enough progress this decade it will be not possible to change the course of climate change.

Despite the urgency it seams very unlikely that progress will be made as new global agreements forcing the world’s biggest polluters namely, China and United States to regulate its greenhouse emissions, will not be decided by at least 2015 and won’t enter into force by at least 2020.

The Kyoto agreement set out the guidelines for Co2 Emission in various countries up until 2012 and this was supposed to be extended to other developing economies (Brazil, India, China etc) also USA. It was followed by other inconclusive conferences in Copenhagen in (2009) and Durban (2011)  in  Doha it was decided not to postpone the problem any longer than 2015. In addition to this in the Global warming issue has been overshadowed by the economic recession.

The United States are autonomously making  some progress with what concerns the use of energy and decarbonizing the industry with policies geared towards energy efficiency and the replacement of coal with shale gas. Shale gas has been the engine of a real energy revolution despite the environmental debate that has originated from the extraction techniques that are used, Shale gas has cut by two thirds the cost of energy in the US and has helped in the reduction of its Co2 Emission. Therefore it is more likely that  the United Sates  will accept a global agreement for more stringent measures on Co2 Emissions. China on the other hand has more recently shown more interest in opening up to  technologies geared towards energy efficiency and Co2 reduction.

 Europe  has taken the issue more seriously however the margins for improvements are lower than in the US or China. The Economic crisis has made it difficult to sustain environmental causes it is not economical to move from Coal to natural gas as increased costs will make Europe’s industry less competitive, therefore it is more likely that Europe will move towards energy efficiency. We hope that the end of the economic crisis, environmental issues will start to occupy  mainstream media again while US and China’s latest political signs are seam to bring some optimism.